Daily Outlook-17th Feb ‘09
We are seeing general risk aversion with the USD gaining strength against the EUR and GBP respectively over the Asian session. Gbp/Usd has lost about 100 pips and Eur/Usd has lost about 200 pips since the asian session start. Now, i am cautious about a continued approach with the downtrend as i don’t see clear sell signals with the Uk session as yet.
We have 4 news indicators all coming out at 430 am(in an hours time), i am therefore cautious about taking a long term position as there could be some whipsawing. Though i expect a natural selling of the sterling, i don’t want to risk unnecessarily by going in too early and incur drawdowns. Unless i see a clear techcnical sell signal, i will stay out as i don’t see any fundamental reasons to get in.
As for the Gbp/Jpy pair, i also expect a tight range as the usd/jpy has not broken the 93.00 handle on the upside, nor has it broken the 90.00 handle on the downside. Making it contained within a 300 range area which will in turn cause the Gbp/Jpy area to be range bound as well.
Bottomline, stay out of the market till we see a clear brekout signal.
Happy trading,
Seeni
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Seeni J G
