Market Outlook-17th Mar ‘09

Lately, there hasn’t been much fundamentals driving the market and also that there isn’t any real important news to speculate on. Most of the time, when i have an important news that i have pre-news sentiments on, i will let you folks know and we take a shot at that. However, lately, the market has been in risk aversion mode and even news releases such as NFP and CPI numbers don’t rally the market as much as they should, even when the numbers are positive. Therefore, i am extremely picky about the trades i recommend to you guys.

If i have nothing to trade and recommend on, i don’t want to waste my time writing about it and your time reading about it. So bear with me should you have lots of visits to my blog with no real juice.

Now, as for today too, i don’t have much stuff to talk about as there is hardly much  news driving the market. I see general risk appetite, strongly buoying uptrends on G/U and E/U.

If you would remember my long term E/U trade, i did a forecast back almost a month ago that E/U has nicely formed a bottom and we can pick off that. I was giving room for some downside, for about 200-300 pips, but overall, it felt right for a long term uptrend. If you missed the post, you can read about it here

The trade has worked out very well for us. We have taken partial profits 3 times, at 1.30 level, each time closing about 0.2 lots for about 300-400 pips. I have the last 0.2 orders open and e/u has just crossed 1.3 level. i am going to let this run and see whereever it goes.

Ok, one more pointer to go before i wrap up this post. About 6am, NY time, 6pm, SGT, today, we have German ZEW Economic Sentiment expected. I expect a positive number on this report, as with the last few months and i expect this to continue for today as well. Even a weak number should cause further uptrend, as the market seems to be in a slightly more hungrier mode for risk. If you have e/u trades, this might push the price to the upside.

Bottomline

Pre-sentiment news trade, buy e/u 1.30-13020, S/L 1.2940 (giving room for news spread should it happen but i don’t expect too much)

T/P.1.3090, BOW, TP2-1.3150-We are facing strong resistance on the upside as this will be a 2 month high we are breaching. So be cautious and take profit when happy

Happy trading,
Seeni

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