Usd/Jpy Long Trend Trade – 1st May 09
First of all, Happy Labour Day to all of you. It is a holiday here in Singapore(and some parts of asia, i think!) and thank god for having a day off like this. After all, it is not often that we have a day off here in Singapore, which everyone comes together for a common cause: celebrating their labour and hard work.
Ok, back to our trading progress. Almost about 8 days ago, i had given a signal that Usd/Jpy might go long again after being stuck in a range between 96-100 level. After a decent retracement with Yen strengthening, i studied that usd/jpy can start another uptrend after having bounced off a nice support level at 97.50 level. This was a long term position and it was entered with a small order, in case i needed to scale in should the order go against me.
I was expecting some drawdown, but i was in for quite challenging times as yen continued strengthening beyond the 97.50 level. In fact, it went beyond 97 and 96 level. As i had plotted the bottom of the trend channel to be at about 96 level and set my stop losses at 95.50. The price slid all the way till about 95.70 before reversing again. Honestly, it was almost a close call that we could have got stopped out. Then again, as we had always planned, 95.50 was the stop loss area and we stuck to that.
After the reversal, as expected, we are well in to the late 90’s region and will hit 100-102 region as per my earlier forecast.
As with this continuing Yen weakness, you may also buy eur/jpy and gbp/jpy at your discretion if Eur and Gbp are to rise in strength as well.
Happy Trading,
Seeni
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Seeni J G
Hi Seeni, do you trail your stops? If so how many pips do you trail trading on the hourly chart? Or do you exit only when you deemed that the trend has reversed?
I also traded this USDJPY uptrend, entered about 97.+ but was stop out at 98.+ after a reversal which hit my trailing stop.
Nick, i only exit on trend reversal but will manage my orders such that my profits are always secured and risk is minimized. Then, i will leave the trade to run till the trend reverses. If there isn’t a clear trend, then i might choose to trail with a TS or PSAR.
[...] than 150 pips retracement, that was another spectacular move if you had caught it. I was having an amazing ride with usd/jpy myself, so i wasn’t quite “interested” in other trades as yet as i will be over [...]